This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Williamson County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Williamson County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 highlights the top five sectors in Williamson County with the highest Competitive Effect. Financial Activities exhibits the largest Competitive Effect of sectors in the County. Meanwhile, Financial Activities and Professional and Business Services have a declining Industry shift value of 130 and 554 respectively. However, this does not necessarily indicate a negative outcome; rather, it means that the region has a higher concentration of industries that are declining nationally.

Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Williamson County by Competitive Effect, 2023

 Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q4

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Flagstar Bank, a large, full-service commercial bank with over 300 branches across the country excluding Texas announced that it will lay off around 1,900 employees with an additional 1,900 reductions in the coming months. Flagstar financial stated this was because of stress from its commercial real estate portfolio and recovering from the failures of regional banks in 2023. ^[2] The combination of rapid population growth (+44.1% from 2010 to 2024^[3]) and rising incomes (weekly wages +7.2% from December 2023 through December 2024^[4]) has strengthened the County’s overall economic environment, helping it emerge as a major economic hub that attracts and supports expansion in financial-sector businesses.

A major factor contributing to the strong Competitive Effect of the Education and Health Services sector in Williamson County is the recent expansion of hospitals. Notably, St. David’s completed a $53 million expansion in 2023, adding two additional floors, four new operating rooms, and expanded support space. These new healthcare developments, along with other ongoing expansions, are expected to bring more than 2,100 new employees, adding to the 2,600+ healthcare professionals already working in Williamson County’s leading health and life sciences facilities.^[5]

Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Williamson County by Competitive Effect, 2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes to detailed industries, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown in Figure 2 and summarized below:

• Insurance agencies and brokerages rank highest, which aligns with Williamson County’s strong performance in the Professional and Business Service sector
• Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores also demonstrate a strong competitive effect, similar to trends across many Texas counties. This is likely influenced by population growth and continued expansion of regional and national grocery chains into Texas markets.^[6]
• Custom Computer Programming Services is among the top five strongest competitive-effect industries in Williamson County, likely due to the rapid expansion of Texas’s information technology sector, which more than doubled its employment base from 2011 to 2021.^[7]