This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Llano County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Llano County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 highlights the top five sectors in Llano County with the highest Competitive Effect. All five show positive competitive gains, with Leisure and Hospitality leading. This is expected, given Llano County’s strong tourism economy.

Both the National Effect and Competitive Effect for Leisure and Hospitality are positive. This indicates that the industry is growing nationally and that Llano County is not only benefiting from that national growth but also outperforming it locally. Because the Competitive Effect is larger than the National Effect, the sector is expanding at a faster rate in Llano County than across the U.S., demonstrating a strong regional advantage.

Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Llano County by Competitive Effect, 2023

 Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

Many Texas counties collect a hotel occupancy tax on hotel, motel, and short-term rental stays. These funds are then reinvested into local projects that promote tourism and economic activity. In 2023, Llano County awarded $741,000 in tourism grants to support such initiatives.^[2] The Leisure and Hospitality sector plays a significant role in the county’s economy, and these investments reflect the county’s ongoing commitment to supporting and strengthening this industry.

 Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Llano County by Competitive Effect, 2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes to detailed industries, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown in Figure 2 and summarized below:

• All of the top five six-digit industries in Llano County show a positive competitive effect.
  • Hotels and Motels (except Casino Hotels) rank highest, which aligns with Llano County’s strong performance in the Leisure and Hospitality sector
• Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores also demonstrate a strong competitive effect, similar to trends across many Texas counties. This is likely influenced by population growth and continued expansion of regional and national grocery chains into Texas markets.^[3]
• Mobile Food Services is among the top five strongest competitive effects, a first time in this article series. This appears to be a relevant industry to Texas as a new law designated as the “Food Truck Freedom Bill” makes the process of getting a license to enter this business much easier. ^[4]