Modest population gains, robust industry sectors, and strategic workforce initiatives are setting the stage for an economic rebound in Lee County.

Lee County has experienced a steady population increase of 6.6% since 2018—adding 1,127 residents in recent years—with projections pointing to an 8.4% rise (over 1,500 more residents) by 2028. Although job numbers dipped slightly from 8,580 to 8,516 between 2018 and 2023, forecasts show a gradual recovery, with employment expected to climb steadily in the coming years. These trends, along with a relatively low unemployment rate of 3.0% in December 2024, reflect a resilient community adapting to evolving economic conditions.

Key industries are the backbone of Lee County’s economy. Utility system construction, crop production, and education and hospital services (primarily driven by local government) provide stability and unique opportunities in the region. With 1,513 companies actively employing local talent, the business environment is characterized by a strong small-business presence and an entrepreneurial spirit. While median household income currently stands at $66.4K—below the national median—the county’s strategic focus on its core sectors lays a solid foundation for future growth.

Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area is partnering with local stakeholders to develop targeted recruitment and retention strategies, addressing both immediate needs and long-term talent development. Coupled with competitive crime rates (2.28 violent and 9.35 property crimes per 1,000 people) and a stable labor market, Lee County is poised to leverage its strengths and overcome challenges, setting the stage for a robust economic turnaround in the years ahead.

Shift Share in Lee County

This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Lee County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Lee County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Lee County. All five sectors exhibit a positive Competitive Effect. Although, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities has an Industry Shift value of -12. However, this does not necessarily indicate a poor outcome. A negative Industry Shift combined with a positive Competitive Effect indicates that while the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is declining nationally, it is growing in Lee County. This suggests that Lee County outperforms the national trend and is successfully expanding employment in this sector.

 Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Lee County by Competitive Effect, 2023

 Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

In 2021, Lee County completed a U.S. 290 East widening project to improve highway safety and improve traffic flow.  It is noted that Lee County expects thousands of more vehicles to travel on the highway each and that there is a need to modernize the roadway.^[2] The U.S. 290 East widening is an excellent example of projects that drive Lee County’s Competitive Effect in Construction and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.

As shown in Figure 1, the Competitive Effect accounts for the vast majority of the Net Effect in Lee County’s three top sectors. So, not only is Lee County outperforming national trends in these industries, but it is for largely regional reasons, such as the U.S. 290 East widening project. Additionally, with a strong Construction sector comes new developments which can continue to grow on Lee County’s strong foundation.

Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Lee County by Competitive Effect, 2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes to detailed industries, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown in Figure 2 and summarized below:

• The Natural Gas Extraction industry has a strong Competitive Effect.
  • A new renewable natural gas facility has recently opened in Lee County, providing heat and energy for local homes.^[3] This development underscores the county’s strength in natural gas extraction and signals continued growth in the industry.
• Nursing Care Facilities, Skilled Nursing has a positive Competitive Effect and a negative Industry Shift.
  • Lee County and surrounding areas are experiencing population growth, which is driving increased demand for healthcare workers to meet local needs. While the industry is declining nationally, it continues to expand in Lee County.

Floriculture Production shows a positive National Effect and a negative Industry Shift, meaning that while overall U.S. economic growth provides a general boost to Lee County, this particular industry is declining nationally.