Modest population growth and a strong local mix of industries set the stage for renewed job creation and innovative workforce initiatives.

Fayette County has experienced a subtle yet steady increase in population—up by 0.8% since 2018—and is projected to add over 1,000 residents in the next five years. With a median household income of $72.9K, just a couple of thousand dollars below the national average, the county maintains a solid economic foundation despite a slight recent decline in job numbers from 11,274 to 11,015.

Local industries play a pivotal role in Fayette County’s economic landscape, with restaurants, local government, and education and hospital services driving activity in the area. Although job numbers have dipped marginally, projections indicate a promising rebound with an expected addition of 544 jobs over the next five years, signaling opportunities for both businesses and workers.

Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area is at the forefront of this positive shift, forging strategic sector partnerships to address immediate and long-term talent needs. By equipping local employers with innovative recruitment and retention strategies, they are working to reverse the recent job decline and set Fayette County on a path toward renewed economic vitality and sustained workforce growth.

Shift Share in Fayette County

This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Fayette County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Fayette County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Fayette County. Four of the five sectors exhibit a positive Competitive Effect. Although, Manufacturing has an Industry Shift value of negative 11. However, this does not necessarily indicate a poor outcome. A negative Industry Shift combined with a positive Competitive Effect indicates that while the Manufacturing sector is declining nationally, it is growing in Fayette County. This suggests that Fayette County outperforms the national trend and is successfully expanding employment in this sector. 

Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Fayette County by Competitive Effect, 2023

 Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

In 2023, the State of Texas has plans to build 104 new manufacturing facilities, ranging from automotive plants to high-tech electronics manufacturing facilities, showing that Texas is transforming into a manufacturing hub.^[2] As shown above, this aligns with the Shift Share data indicating that manufacturing is growing in Fayette County.

In 2020, Dairy Farmers of America, Inc. announced a $39.4 million upgrade to its facility in the County, which includes expanding the physical space and installing new equipment. The project also adds a complete packaging line, nearly doubling the plant’s capacity and creating approximately 70 new jobs.^[3] 

Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Fayette County by Competitive Effect, 2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes to detailed industries, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown in Figure 2 and summarized below:

• All of the top five six-digit industries in Fayette County are experiencing the same Shift-Share trend of negative Industry Shift values but positive Competitive Effect Values
  • This trend indicates that Fayette County is growing in all these industries mainly due to regional factors while the industries are all declining nationally
• Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores along with Full-Service Restaurants exhibit the largest Competitive Effect values, growing because of regional factors the most
• Fabricated Pipe and Pipe Fitting Manufacturing is also strongly driven by regional factors, experiencing a low National Effect value and a negative Industry Shift Value.