Recognized nationally as one of the fastest-growing counties, Hays County’s rapid population and job gains are setting new benchmarks for economic expansion.

Hays County has experienced remarkable growth over the past five years, with its population surging by 25.8%—from 222,928 in 2018 to 280,486 in 2023—and jobs soaring by 28.8% from 81,209 to 104,559. Such extraordinary gains have earned Hays County national recognition as one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, with projections expecting a further 22.7% population increase (adding 63,542 residents) by 2028.

A key driver behind this impressive momentum is the Texas Innovation Corridor—the vibrant stretch of Interstate 35 that runs between Austin and San Antonio. This corridor has become a magnet for cutting-edge research, technology, and innovation, attracting top-tier companies and fostering a fertile environment for workforce development and entrepreneurial ventures.

Coupled with a competitive median household income of $80K and strong educational attainment—with 26.4% of residents holding a Bachelor’s Degree—the county is well-positioned to meet current and future talent needs. Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area is actively partnering with local industries and training providers to deploy innovative recruitment and retention strategies, ensuring that Hays County remains at the forefront of Texas’s economic transformation.

Shift Share in Hays County

This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Hays County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Hays County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Hays County. Each sector, especially Education and Health Services, exhibits a positive Competitive Effect. Meanwhile, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities have a declining Industry Shift value of 276. However, this does not necessarily indicate a negative outcome. A negative Industry Shift combined with a positive Competitive Effect indicates that while the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is declining nationally, it is growing in Hays County. This suggests that Hays County outperforms the national trend and is successfully expanding employment in this sector.

 Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Hays County by Competitive Effect, 2023

 Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

Hays County has experienced rapid population growth, increasing by 16.4% between 2020 and 2023, one of the fastest rates among large counties in the nation.^[2] This surge in residents is driving strong demand for new housing, commercial development, and supporting infrastructure. As a result, the Construction sector in Hays County is benefiting from a significant competitive effect, reflecting its ability to attract and retain activity in response to local economic expansion.

 Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Hays County by Competitive Effect, 2018-2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown Figure 2 and summarized below:

• General Warehousing and Storage showed positive values across all four shift-share components. The positive Industry Shift reflects strong national growth in this industry, while the Competitive Effect suggests that this industry is growing in Hays County as well.
• Elementary and Secondary Schools showed a negative Industry Shift, meaning the industry is declining nationally. However, the positive Competitive Effect indicates Hays County is outperforming the U.S. in job growth for this industry.
• Colleges and Universities, Supermarkets and other Grocery Stores, and Limited-Service Restaurants all saw varying – but low – Industry Shift values. However, they all exhibited strong Competitive Effect values, showing Hays County is performing significantly better than the U.S. in each industry.