Rapid job gains and targeted sector partnerships are powering a dynamic workforce evolution in Burnet County.

Burnet County is experiencing steady growth with its population increasing by 14% since 2018 and job numbers rising by 15.8%from 17,775 to 20,591. This solid upward trend is supported by a growing labor force participation rate and a resilient local economy, even as the median household income sits just below the national benchmark. Projections indicate further expansion over the next five years, setting the stage for continued economic vibrancy.

Key sectors in Burnet County are at the heart of this transformation. The county’s leading industries—Education and Hospitals (Local Government), Restaurants and Other Eating Places, and Local Government (excluding Education and Hospitals)—are driving job creation and enhancing service quality. Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area is playing a pivotal role by forging strategic sector partnerships that address both immediate and long-term talent needs. With 4,211 companies actively employing local talent and 659 job postings in the past 12 months, these initiatives empower employers with innovative recruitment and retention strategies.

Moreover, strong net migration from neighboring Williamson County—1,105 inbound versus 437 outbound—further highlights Burnet County’s growing appeal as a hub for both business and workforce development. A vibrant small business landscape, where nearly 70% of companies have fewer than 10 employees, also reflects a robust entrepreneurial spirit across the region.

Shift Share in Burnet County

This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Burnet County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Burnet County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Burnet County. Each sector, especially Construction, exhibits a positive Competitive Effect. Meanwhile, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities has a declining Industry Shift value of 43. However, this does not necessarily indicate a negative outcome. A negative Industry Shift combined with a Positive Competitive effect indicates that while the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is declining nationally, it is growing in Burnet County. This suggests that Burnet County outperforms the national trend and is successfully expanding employment in this sector.

 Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Burnet County by Competitive Effect, 2023

  Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

Between 2022 and 2023, jobs in the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector declined 1.1% nationally.^[2] One potential reason for this is the decreasing demand for transporting goods. According to the December 2023 Cass Transportation Index Report, the volume of shipments declined 7.2% between December 2022 and December 2023.^[3]

However, it is likely that Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector will continue to see a positive growth in Burnet County. For example, a letter published by the City Manager of Burnet stated that the city council accepted a 0.14-acre right-of-way easement to support utility improvements. Additionally, the City of Burnet entered an agreement with Bager Meter, Inc. to implement new monitoring systems that will enhance utility operations.^[4]

Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Burnet County by Competitive Effect, 2018-2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown below:

• Water and Sewer System Construction showed positive values across all four shift-share components. The positive Industry Shift reflects strong national growth in this industry, while the Competitive Effect suggests that Burnet County is outperforming national trends.
• Elementary and Secondary Schools showed a negative Industry Shift, meaning the industry is declining nationally. However, the positive Competitive Effect indicates Burnet County is outperforming the U.S. in job growth for this industry.
• Residential Property Managers, Supermarkets and other Grocery Stores, and Nonresidential Electrical Contractors all saw varying – but low – Industry Shift values. However, they all exhibited strong Competitive Effect values, showing Burnet County is performing significantly better than the U.S. in each industry.