Bastrop County Is Booming – And It’s Only Getting Better
Welcome to the Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area monthly newsletter.
This resource empowers leaders with the tools and data they need to make informed decisions. By analyzing workforce trends, identifying skills gaps, and understanding industry needs, leaders can effectively allocate resources, attract businesses, support workforce development, and advocate for policies that create a thriving local economy. This resource provides access to critical data sources and insights to help you navigate the complexities of the local economy and achieve your economic development goals.
This month, we delve into the latest workforce trends in Bastrop County. We want this tool to be a valuable resource for you. Share your suggestions by reaching out to communications@ruralcapital.net.
What is Shift Share?
Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “competitive effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.
To define the terms included in this analysis: net effect is the sum of the national effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the industry shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the competitive effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).
Local Shift Share in the County
To analyze Shift Share in Bastrop County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.
Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Bastrop County. Each sector especially Leisure and Hospitality, exhibits a positive competitive effect. Meanwhile, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities have a declining Industry shift value of 60. However, this does not necessarily indicate a negative outcome. A negative industry effect means that the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sectors are shrinking or growing slower at the national level. This suggests that the region has a higher concentration of sectors that are declining nationally.
Figure 1: Top Five sectors in Bastrop County by Competitive Effect, 2023
Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2024.Q2
For example, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics released an article in June 2024 stating the U.S. Transportation Sector Unemployment rose to 5.5% from 3.6% in May 2023, indicating this sector is shrinking at the national level. However, in September 2024 it was reported Bastrop County is seeing infrastructure updates to accommodate the relocation of social media company, X moving to the County.
A new wastewater treatment plant is also being built to provide capacity for the company and more plans are in progress to expand the highway. According to Bastrop County Commissioner Hamner, “This will be a big Economic Boom for the County.” A negative industry shift may imply that a sector is declining nationally, but not necessarily for a region. Additionally, this investment in local infrastructure reflects that Trade, Transportation, and Utilities have a positive competitive effect.
Figure 2: Shift-Share Analysis of Six-Digit NAICS Industries in Bastrop County, 2018-2023
Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2024.Q2
When breaking down NAICS codes, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown below:
- Each industry experienced a positive National Effect, indicating that job growth was partly driven by the overall expansion of the U.S. economy.
- Hotels and motels (excluding casinos) showed a negative Industry Shift but a positive Competitive Effect, meaning the industry is declining nationally, yet Bastrop County is outperforming the U.S. in job growth for this sector.
- Veterinary services showed positive values across all four shift-share components. The positive Industry Shift reflects strong national growth in this industry, while the Competitive Effect suggests that Bastrop County is outperforming national trends.
- New single-family general contractors saw a decline in employment, with local performance trailing that of the national industry, indicating a negative Competitive Effect.
Bastrop County is riding a wave of growth and opportunity. Since 2018, the community has seen a 27.9% population surge—welcoming over 24,000 new residents—with job numbers climbing by 17.7% from 22,662 to 26,676, far exceeding national trends. Projections suggest an additional 27,867 residents and steady job gains over the next five years, setting the stage for an even more vibrant local economy. With a competitive median household income of $80.2K—well above the national average—the county’s diverse economic base is clearly thriving.
In partnership with many community organizations, we are hosting the Work In Bastrop hiring event on 4/30/25 at the Bastrop Convention Center.
Visit Us Today!
We invite you to visit our Bastrop County office and discover how Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area can help you achieve your career and business goals.
Let’s Build a Stronger Bastrop County Together,
Paul Fletcher CEO Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area