Introduction

Caldwell County is situated to the southeast of Austin. The county seat is Lockhart. In 2022, the population of Caldwell County was 47,848. Notably, it is home to the annual Watermelon Thump celebration.

Demographic Profile

While Caldwell County has grown every year in the past decade, there was a substantial population increase in 2021. Migration data has yet to be released for 2021. However, based on past trends, domestic migration likely accounts for much of the growth (more so than natural population increases).

Figure 1: Population Growth, 2012-2021, Caldwell County

Source: Census Population Estimates Program

Figure 2: Population Change Components, 2011-2021, Caldwell County

Source: Census Population Estimates Program

Employment Trends

The unemployment rate in Caldwell County in 2021 was 2.4%, well below the national and state rates of 5.5% and 5.4%, respectively. Notably, a somewhat higher than usual percentage of the adult population is not in the labor force: 42.5%. For comparison, 36.4% of the adult population in the nation and 34.9% in the state are not in the labor force.

People who are counted as “not in the labor force” are simply those who are “neither working nor looking for work”[1], whereas the unemployment rate counts those who are not employed but looking for work. People could not be in the labor force due to health reasons, age, home responsibilities, school, or inability to find suitable work. Given that Caldwell County has a relatively young population compared to national averages, retirement does not account for the higher percentage of the population opting out of the labor force.

[1] “People who are not in the labor force: why aren’t they working?”, Steven F. Hipple, Beyond the Numbers, BLS, vol. 4 / No.15

Table 1: Employment Status of Caldwell County

Educational Attainment

In Caldwell County, 80.1% of the population (over 25 years-old) holds at least a high school degree, and 16% of the population has a bachelor’s degree or higher. Both of these statistics are lower than state and national averages. In Texas, 84.8% have at least a high school diploma and 31.5% have at least a four-year degree. While in the United States as a whole, those figures are 88.9% and 33.7% respectively. Particularly, Caldwell County has a significantly lower percentage of the population with at least a four-year college degree.  

Figure 3: Educational Attainment in Caldwell County

Source: American Community Survey, 2021, 5-Year Estimate Caldwell County

Wage Trends

Median Household Income (MHI) growth fluctuates more than US trends. While some of this is due to sample size, it is interesting to note when the big jumps and dips occur. For instance, MHI saw a 19.6% growth in 2020, followed by 9.2% decline in 2021, corresponding to national trends post-Covid.

Figure 4: Median Household Income, 2011-2021, Caldwell County vs. US

Source: Census Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)

Notable, however, income growth per capita continued to grow into 2021 in Caldwell County. This could perhaps be accounted for by income growth from sources such as government transfer payments (such as SNAP, and Social Security), which the MHI from the Census Bureau does not track.

Figure 5: Per Capita Income Growth, 2011-2021, Caldwell County vs. US

Source: BEA Regional Economic Accounts

Industry and Occupation Snapshots

Hospitality, Personal Services, and Back Office rank the highest in Caldwell County’s occupation clusters. The largest industry employment clusters are Healthcare, Entertainment, and Construction.

Figure 6: Occupation Cluster Employment, 2023, Caldwell County

Source: Headlight Data cluster calculations using data from DTG

Gross Regional Product

Interestingly, unlike the nation as a whole, Caldwell County’s growth in Gross Regional Product (GRP) did not decrease in 2020. In fact, the county has seen a growth in GRP for the past five years.

Figure 7: Growth in Gross Regional Product, 2011-2021, Caldwell County vs. US

Source: BEA Regional Economic Accounts

In Caldwell County, the industry that generates the most GRP is Real estate and rental and leasing, followed by Construction.

Figure 8: Gross Regional Product by Industry ($1,000,000s), 2021, Caldwell County

Source: BEA Regional Economic Accounts

One way to visualize this is by thinking of the GRP for Caldwell County as a $100 bill. Of that $100, real estate-related revenue contributed $23, construction $13, retail $12, and health care $10. The other $40 was brought in by all other industries.